The desk research included a review of published material on seed breeding and maize varieties in Zambia [1], [17], [21], [28], [18], [2], [16] focusing on characteristics of the maize varieties recommended for southern Zambia. (Urban hydrological models) This study conducted in Southern Zambia assessed climatic variability in the region for the purpose of determining occurrence of climate change over the past 100 years. Spatial agreement analysis between rainfall-based drought map and rainy days-based drought map was performed using kappa index. endobj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.4.1.1) >> A set of criteria presented in the paper, detailing work and power obtained during a 240- second cycle ergometer might be used by trainers in a sport training process to assess individual function predisposition. << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.2.3.2) >> endobj However, economic factors such as limited access to fertilizer and seed, late delivery of inputs and delayed payments by the Food Reserve Agency for maize, lack of markets, affected maize productivity. It is possible that it represents a natural climate change. Zambia has experienced droughts (1916/17, 1924/25, 1949/50, 1983/84, 1987/88, 1991/92, 1994/95 and 1997/98) and high intensity of floods (2007/08, 2009/2010). endobj County. 60 0 obj But recent temperature changes are at the limit of known natural fluctuations. The magnitude of the risk involved in the transitional areas is indicated by the percentage probability of receiving critical rainfall values. endobj endobj Drought prediction has been an age-old problem, but in more recent times the magnitude of the Sahelian drought has brought into focus the need to improve the techniques for predicting such droughts with some measure of accuracy. Generally, findings seem to suggest that traditional African knowledge of environmental change may be as old as the society itself, with local knowledge transmitted from one generation to the next. endobj ... Indigenous communities have tended to migrate and locate into semi-wet lands as a form of strategy to cope with drought (Scoones, 1991; ... Due to data scarcity, among other reasons [24], most studies are either at national or international scale. endobj @�Z�����#���$D0a��:�CK�9F`�1�� 79�r�biv�b�U=�W�4]��kJr`"%�Ϟ� �کV֟�,��}�솂���D�jPr�� �F��̌��F��bd��7�h 32 0 obj 9 0 obj In this paper however, we attempt to supplement these arguments by providing specific and contextualised evidence of indigenous knowledge linked to climate change adaptation. endobj Provides an overview to the preceding chapters in the volume. 148 0 obj latitudes and two of which show departures of the same sign over the Rainfall variability is the degree to which rainfall amounts vary across an area or through time, it is an important characteristic of the climate of an area and has two components i.e. 144 0 obj 57 0 obj (References) The 1972-73 El Nino off the west coast of South America is a good case in point. In both areas, the report finds significant economic impacts. We then discuss The research included 20 competitors aged 16-17 and 12 competitors aged 18-19. highly variable seasonal rainfall in terms of amount and number of rainy days. 93 0 obj first present the Multifractal Flood Frequency Analysis (MFFA) tool and From a study of rainfall series at several locations, it is shown that approximate but meaningful predictions of drought-prone intervals are possible only for regions where the rainfall series have prominent periodicities (of large amplitudes) in the long periodicity region (about 10 yr or more), provided the patterns do not change abruptly and drastically. 113 0 obj endobj The analysis has highlighted the areas with lower mean rainfall and higher CV and higher drought frequency. Interesting themes emerge from the knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a wide range of adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success. The development of numerical models which allow the incorporation of not only climatic factors but also man's impact on the natural environment, offers some ray of hope that the general circulation models (GCMs) may help to improve the techniques of drought prediction. The estimation of return periods for extreme precipitation and endobj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.1) >> 36 0 obj In Zambia, however, the protocols have not been applied at either regional or local scale. Moreover rainfall variability is associated with too much rainfall or decrease in rainfall The Minister of Co-operatives, Justin Mukando, said in February that more than eight million bags were anticipated, and the Prime Minister, Kebby S. K. Musokotwane, declared in May that ‘we expect about ten million bags of maize’. endobj Geografiska Annaler Series A Physical Geography. This study identified factors that adversely affected smallholder agriculture and suggested methods of improving smallholder food sufficiency. 52 0 obj rainfall are apparent. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.5.1) >> The review shows that although uncertainties exist in the design of models, and parameters, soil, climate and management options, the climate would adversely affect maize yield production in SSA. Climate Change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and in the variability of precipitation and temperature that persists for an extended period—typically decades or longer. Maize produced was usually enough for annual consumption before farmers sold about 50 % of the produce. 100 0 obj The method used to determine the modes of this variability and the trends of rainfall is the chronological graphic method of information processing (MGCTI) of the “Bertin Matrix” and continuous wavelets transform (CWT). To assess change and variability, we utilise rainfall data-records over a 36-year period from 1980 to 2016. “Natural climate variability is not attributable to or influenced by any activity related to humans.” A prominent aspect of our climate is its variability. (Rainfall variability at the urban scale) a fundamental difficulty: the extreme variability of hydrological (Spatial and temporal scale definitions) endobj It changes from day to day.Climate is the average (or ‘normal’) pattern of weather for a particular place over several decades. Yet, knowledge systems rarely develop in isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other. (2009) studied monthly rainfall distribution in Nigeria between 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and noticed some fluctuations in most months within the decades. << /S /GoTo /D (section.4) >> Evidence suggests a general reduction in both annual rainfall and wet days. (Interaction between rainfall resolution and \040urban hydrological processes) The obtained results were worked out using basic descriptive statistics: arithmetic average (M), standard deviation (± δ), minimum (min) and maximum values and coefficient of variation (V%). Ayansina et al. endobj of the study, the following recommendations were made: (i) Rainfall received in the study Data on recommended maize varieties was collected through key informant interviews with private seed breeders including The Zambia Seed Company, Seed Company, Pannar Seed Company and The Maize Research Institute as well as government officials from the Ministry of Agriculture. endobj Analysis revealed that rainfall variability, indicated by increasing 11-year coefficients of variation (CVs) for selected stations and decreasing rainfall trends observed in southern Zambia after 1975, was not extraordinary as similar conditions were experienced before the turn of 19th century. 116 0 obj 120 0 obj Scaling is a verifiable physical its efficiency by showing how the mean flow information - coupled with 85 0 obj Variability was assessed by the use of 11-year moving average, Coefficient of Variation. subtropical latitudes. (Rain gauges networks) 132 0 obj illustrate some results of its application to a large database (for endobj Data was analyzed using INSTAT version 3.36 software. climate variability and change: farmer perceptions and understanding of intra-seasonal variability in rainfall and associated risk in semi-arid kenya - volume 47 special issue - k. p. c. rao, w. g. ndegwa, k. kizito, a. oyoo Key words: Seasonal Rainfall Variability ∙ MAM rainfall ∙ OND Rainfall ∙ Onset ∙ Cessation. endobj INVESTIGATING the response of global climate to changes in external forcing is essential to our understanding of climate change. On the other hand, mean temperatures had significantly increased (p=0.001) since 1945 with an annual rate of temperature change of 0.025.AIt was concluded that Southern Zambia has experienced climate change as observed from temperature analysis. reliability of rain-cultivation in the country. endobj endobj analysis of the future climate variability on livelihoods of the smallholder farmers. << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.1.3) >> RAINFALL TRENDS AND VARIABILITY CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY Rain is liquid water in form of droplets that have condensed from atmospheric water vapor and then precipitated that is, become heavy enough to fall under gravity (Mordurch, 1995; Sala and Lauenroth, 1982). t���gځQ��0�������n'�T� j�,cd��_!���H���빵Ӆ���S�~�5��@���7B�c>��.�U*P# ��u��˽B�`� << /S /GoTo /D (section.2) >> An estimate of drought intensity has been realized from the concept of the truncated normal distribution of the standardized form of the drought sequences in the normalized domain. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.6.1) >> (Surface runoff) hydrological variability builds up scale by scale leading to This study showed that a comprehensive assessment of droughts by integrating multiple variables provided a versatile tool for drought monitoring and mitigation. aspects of rainfall variability and ways of reducing its effects on agricultural production; (iii) Sustainable livelihood diversification should be encouraged as it would result in diversified income sources for farmers and lessen the pressure on maize as the most important source of household income. Additionally, results showed a significant increase in absolute indices as a function of temperature. For the continent as a whole, six types are also derived. This study was conducted on 27 Sahelian climatic stations in three countries (Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Senegal). (Abstract) n Climate change – Long-term continuous change (increase or decrease) to average weather conditions or the range of weather. Also, rainfall for individual years cannot be predicted accurately. endobj : Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR 123. among the reanalyses, and what is the relevance of the difference to the dynamics of the MJO; and (3) how dif-ferent is the heating directly generated in the reanalysis from that implied by the changes in large scale circulation The importance of rainfall variability in successfully understanding the dynamics of climate change in any region cannot be overemphasized. © 2008-2020 ResearchGate GmbH. endobj whole region. endobj To extend this work, a 78-year long, high-resolution (6 min) rainfall dataset (1925–2002) from Melbourne has been used. of annual departure maps for the years 1901 to 1973. We further conclude that migrants into Kabwe and other inhabitants are not any safer from climate change risk. drought and plays an important role in the relationship between vulnerability and risk. (Spatial vs. temporal resolution) >> /Filter /FlateDecode patterns of rainfall variation are evident: anomalies of the same sign Denying famine a future: concluding remarks. (Spatial variability of basin characteristics) << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.3) >> endobj clustering (including possible long-range dependencies) of the extremes. “We use their radar estimates on our rainfall maps to get a more detailed analysis of rainfall endobj used to estimate return times for extreme flood events. endobj These include the use of teleconnections and the development of numerical models.Essentially, time-lagged teleconnections rely on the assumption that changes induced in any one area of the world may produce changes elsewhere on a world-wide scale, though time-lagged. Despite the annual maize production increase of 230.8 t/year, farmers in Choma continued to experience food insufficiency as their maize retained for household consumption could not sustain their 185.2 kg per capita maize requirement. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.4) >> The result indicates that a combination of rainfall and rainy days brings additional information on drought intensity. The study uses CPC rainfall time series of 12 years, 2001–2012, during the major rainfall period, i.e., southwest monsoon (June–September) over India at 10 km × 10 km pixel for the meteorological drought analysis. Join ResearchGate to find the people and research you need to help your work. endobj (Rainfall estimation) ; JSRR, 15(4): 1-19, 2017; Article no.JSRR.34815 2 TX > 25°C) for both monthly and annual trend had in creased significantly with a slope of 1.204 and 0.009, respectively. << /S /GoTo /D (biblio.1) >> To examine intra-assay variation, 20 replicates of each HIV-1 (A) and albumin (B) DNA standard were tested in the same run. endobj It is concluded that, in Zambia drought is a chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned measures for minimizing its impacts. As a major concern to food production in Ghana, this study seeks to show the relationship between the production of major crops and rainfall distribution pattern in the Worobong Agroecological Area (WAA) relative to foo… Middle-distance runs are endurance events that include the distances from 600 m up to 1609 m. The objective of the research is to determine work capabilities in acid and lactic conditions, measured by means of a 240-second test in young junior (16-17 years of age) and junior (18-19 years of age) runners at middle distances and to compare maximum lactate concentrations and maximum, Intra-assay variation analysis for the QPCR assay. We conclude that integration of such unique and specific indigenous knowledge systems into other evidence bases of knowledge, could be one of the best ways to the more effective and sustainable implementation of climate change adaptation strategies among target indigenous communities. Statistical The spatial patterns of rainfall variability over the African continent In the recent past, Mt Makulu had experienced droughts in the seasons 1964/65, 1983/84, 1987/88, 1991/92, 1994/95 and 1997/98 and a high intensity of floods in 2007/08, 2009/2010 (see Fig. Results. The results showed that: (1) all indices were able to detect temporal variability of major drought events in a humid subtropical basin in Southern Africa; (2) SWAT successfully simulated runoff and soil moisture although soil moisture requires further calibration to increase accuracy; (3) the average duration and intensity for meteorological droughts at three-month time scale were lower but frequencies were higher compared to agricultural and hydrological droughts at 3- and 12-month aggregates; and (4) drought events exhibited a negative trend as evaluated by Mann-Kendall on SPEI, indicating an increase in drought severity, and correlation analysis between SPEI and SRI revealed that SPEI at 9-15 months has a strong link with hydrological conditions. 124 0 obj The theory of runs was used in the investigation of frequency of occurrence, duration, magnitude and severity of drought in 46 districts of Zambia, 1886-1996. endobj With coefficients of variation greater than 0.30 for MAM (March, April, May) and OND This variability ranges over many time and space scales and includes phenomena such as El Niño/La Niña, droughts, multi-year, multi-decade, and even multi-century changes in temperature (Urban hydrological model characterization) The potential effect of climate change on maize production can be studied using crop models such as agricultural production simulator (APSIM) and decision support system for agrotechnology (DSSAT) models. Various drought adaptation measures are discussed. (Characterizing rainfall events according to their spatial and temporal scale) These disruptions can take a major toll on a country’s economy if a significant part of economic activity is sensitive to the weather and climate. Assessment of the most suitable of the recommended maize varieties for the region was done by analyzing qualitative data according to themes relating to adaptability to climatic variations, disease resistance, drought tolerance as well as potential yields. 40 0 obj �)�5��i�I�{ޮ� XzoD�_4q#���j��/B������]#�m ������kyx�{y(��i�U�2��t]X24�90����@�/�x��� An in-depth investigation of the collected material might prove useful when planning training loads for work on special stamina. statistical behaviour of the probability tails and the possible endobj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.2) >> are derived using a linear correlation method to assess the similarity AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL: PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA climate dynamics. 69 0 obj 97 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.5) >> The 30-year "normal" rainfall was used as the threshold for drought occurrence with most analyses restricted to the 1921- 1970 period. (Weather radars) endobj 112 0 obj Beside this, a review of the climate status was done. Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) was applied to characterize agricultural droughts and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) was calculated to illustrate hydrological droughts. use packaged agro-meteorological products through awareness creation and training on << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.1) >> (Impact of land cover on overland flow in urban areas) In this paper, focussing on African traditional society, we combine oral history with the available literature to examine traditional knowledge and awareness of climate change and related environmental risks. 44 0 obj (Infiltration, interception and storage) 76 0 obj Input data for SRI and SSI computation was obtained from SWAT model which simulated daily and monthly runoff well with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²) greater than 0.65. non-classical statistics; this provides the key element needed to better endobj The maximum warmest daily temperature (TXx) index showed a predominant increase in the monthly and annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature at Mt Makulu. endobj �-� endobj more than 16000 selected stations over USA and Canada). endobj The assessment is essential for long-term planning in food security and in developing adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of climate variability and change. which show a strong opposition between equatorial and subtropical (Hydrological processes) 72 0 obj All rights reserved. The study suggested how the economic system can be adapted to improve smallholder livelihoods by incentivizing the adoption of conservation farming systems by providing loans to farmers with a successful track record, and also enhancing farmers’ bargaining power by forming marketing partnerships able to bargain on behalf of the farmers in the input and output markets. government of Kenya should empower farmers by providing simple to read, interpret and << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.6.2) >> range – the Variety Crop production in the Fanteakwa District is predominantly rainfed, exposing this major livelihood activity to the variability or change in rainfall pattern. The Mann-Kendall for annual maximum and mean temperature were statistically significant with a positive linear trend (p<0.05). This study examines rainfall variability in the North Central region including the Federal Capital Territory Abuja using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) application. The impacts of climate variability on agriculture sector in Tanzania include shifting in agro-ecological zones, prolonged dry episodes, unpredictability in rainfall, uncertainty in cropping patterns, increased weed competition with crops for (moisture, nutrients and light) and ecological changes for pests and diseases (Paavola, 2003, URT, 2007 92 0 obj Weather describes current atmospheric conditions, such as rainfall, temperature, and wind speed, at a particular place and time. 37 0 obj Twenty stations are used to calculate the standard deviations and the coefficients of variations. The study conducted in Choma's Mbabala and Singani area assessed the recommended maize varieties for Southern Zambia by seed breeders for purposes of ascertaining the best variety for cultivation in the region. 80 0 obj Applying crop and statistical downscaling models requires calibration and validation, and these are crucial for correct climate and crop simulation. This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. 16 0 obj Here I present an analysis of satellite-derived sea surface temperatures for the period 1982–88. endobj The increase in sorghum production in regime II could have also been in part because of the drought periods experienced in most parts of Zambia in the 1992/1993 and 1994/1995 agriculture seasons, ... For example, short rainy season (meteorological drought) may affect crop growth and results in crop failure. After years of agricultural production significantly below domestic consumption needs for key commodities, in 1985 Zambia looked forward to a good harvest of maize, the nation's staple. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.3) >> The drought severity has been modelled as the product of the duration and intensity with the assumption of independence between them. endobj << /S /GoTo /D (competinginterests.1) >> Studies on regional climate modeling have mostly focused on Southern Africa and West Africa, with very few studies in Zambia. Continentally, two principal spatial endobj conditions in the southern subtropics resembling those in subtropical Ethiopia provides a good example of the influence of climate variability 29 0 obj However, there has been not much research on local understanding of the effect of climate variability on maize yields in Arid and Semi arid Lands (ASALs) of lower eastern Kenya counties. endobj Thus, strong interhemispheric teleconnections in Also an attempt is made to measure the reliability of rainfall as a means for determining the extent and the. (Special issue statement) << /S /GoTo /D (acknowledgements.1) >> However, this has led to a tendency to marginalise indigenous knowledge as it is considered unimportant in this process (Belfer et al., 2017; Lesperance, 2017; Whitfield et al., 2015). north of the equator, most years fall into one of six types, four of Natural climate variability can arise from natural forcing mechanism which includes both internal oscillations and external forcing like solar variations, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. This paper reported rainfall variability and drought characteristics under climate change in two agro-climatic zones of southwestern Nigeria. 24 0 obj In this study, an integrated approach involving multiple standardized indicators and hydrological modeling (Soil andWater Assessment Tool, SWAT) was evaluated to reconstruct and characterize meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in Upper Kafue River Basin of Zambia during 1984-2013. (Scales in urban hydrology) It is demonstrated that indigenous knowledge is neither singular nor universal, but rather, a voluminous, diverse and highly localised source of wisdom. Kenya highly vulnerable—the effects of climate variability and the steady degradation of the nation’s water resources. President Kenneth Kaunda committed himself and his Government to success in the forthcoming harvest when he told Parliament in January: ‘I am not prepared to see a recurrence of what happened last year when thousands of bags of maize remained uncollected in various depots’; the state would ensure that the agencies involved in the collection of produce improved their performance. (Precipitation losses) “N” indicates the number of replicates detected for each standard. The government withdrawal from supporting maize production in regime II made the production of maize more expensive due to its high input requirements which contributed to farmers switching from producing maize to sorghum. 56 0 obj Rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa over the 20th century areexamined and their potential links to the global warming discussed. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.2) >> The latter indices give a more realistic impression of the rainfall variability. << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.2.3.1) >> Keywords: Rainfall over Thailand, EOF, ENSO. Agriculture governance interventions have encouraged maize mono-cropping and failed to provide smallholder food sufficiency. endobj (0.04 MB, The paper attempts to throw some lights on the variability and the reliability of rainfall over the Sudan. but I am still writing up our last research studies in the UK, Kuwait and calcareous rivers (worldwide), Characterization of Rainfall variability in Kwale County Kenya JERNMs pp24, Meteorological drought analysis over India using analytical framework on CPC rainfall time series, Detailed analysis of a 240-second cycle ergometric test in middle-distance runners aged 16-19, The Reliability of Rainfall over the Sudan. Review of literature related to the impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) yield using Global Climate Models (GCMs), statistical downscaling, and crop simulation (APSIM-maize-and-CERES-maize models) models are discussed. 68 0 obj In this framework 1997).This strong interannual variability is related to a variety of climate modes of variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and the southern annular mode (SAM). rainfall variability was observed after 1990 for some months. (Opportunities and limitations of weather radars) The extremal values of the duration and severity are modelled in the present paper using information on the aforesaid parameters at the truncation level equal to the mean of the drought sequence, which is generally taken as the truncation level in the analysis of droughts. 13 0 obj Two major approaches appear to be prominent in the search for appropriate techniques. The results obtained made it possible to characterize the subjects in terms of work capabilities at a high level of lactic acid in blood during middle-long effort. 64 0 obj Crop yield projections using crop models require climate inputs at higher spatial resolution than that provided by GCMs. n Climatological normal – 30-year average of a weather variable. There is also ground to suggest that the rainy season duration is becoming shorter, given that rainfall onset is increasingly starting late, while cessation is increasingly coming early. (Methods to characterize hydrological process scales) Appropriate approaches for handling such non classical variability over 128 0 obj Access scientific knowledge from anywhere. endobj 65 0 obj 108 0 obj They are based on a • A changing climate leads to many potential challenges for dependent human and natural systems, especially with respect to climate variability. management, researches and technological or operational development face << /S /GoTo /D (abstract.1) >> Conclusions. rainfall variability. “The Mesonet partners with the National Weather Service River Forecast Center to provide a better assessment of rainfall across the state,” said Chris Fiebrich, Manager of the Oklahoma Mesonet. The El Niño-La Niña episode that occurred from 1997 to 2000 cost the country Ksh 290 billion,about 14 percent of GDP during the three year period. One of the main aspects of drought planning and mitigation includes hazard assessment, which describes the physical nature of, Introduction. endobj (2009) also investigated the seasonal rainfall variability in Guinea savannah part of Nigeria and concluded that rainfall variability continues Climate variability and change has been the most important determinant of crop yields in Kenya and other parts of the world. The study objective was to evaluate the ET-SCI climate indices for extreme weather conditions on temperature and precipitation from 1963 to 2012. 73 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (dataavailability.1) >> endobj In this regard, we think that indigenous knowledge is just as important as scientific knowledge and the two must be integrated through multiple evidence base approach for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Climate Variability refers to variation in the mean states, on all temporal scales %PDF-1.4 105 0 obj endobj %���� << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.5) >> endobj endobj meteorological stations. (Influence of spatial and temporal rainfall variability in relation to catchment dimensions) (Groundwater recharge and subsurface processes in urban areas) endobj endobj (Competing interests) 140 0 obj 104 0 obj 53 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.3) >> the observation scale and yield natural hazards such as floods or Climatic factors such as the interaction of rainfall and temperature through evapotranspiration did not significantly affect maize productivity because the amount of rainfall received in Choma was usually above the water use requirements for maize. seeds and crops to reduce effects of rainfall variability. area is highly variable and it is therefore important that this information is made available to Rainfall data for the period 1992-2011 was obtained from Kwale and Voi (Evaporation) 49 0 obj (Rainfall measurement and variability in urban regions) A formula in terms of the extremal severity and the T-year return period has been suggested similar to the flood frequency formulae, commonly cited in hydrological texts. ) rainfall dataset ( 1925–2002 ) from Melbourne has been the most important of! Non-Linear equations: scale invariance mm, RX5 day, and Senegal ) ) were to... ) significantly increased annually and monthly resulting in a linear slope of 0.031 and,... In two agro-climatic zones of southwestern Nigeria the results are discussed in the relationship between vulnerability and.! Increased from 1963-2012 describes current atmospheric conditions, such as rainfall, temperature, and analyses! Maps was < 50 % of the risk involved in the Fanteakwa district predominantly. Can be exploited to model hydrological processes and estimate their statistics over wide ranges time. Case in point extent and the the minimum warmest daily temperature ( TXm had... A versatile tool for drought occurrence, by district in Zambia, however, rainfall may. It seems increasingly likely that the 2192 J. Wang et al `` normal '' rainfall was used as the of... Provided by gcms I present an analysis of satellite-derived sea surface temperatures for the period 1982–88 these are for! Trends within rainy season show an increase over the Sudan and 1945 to 2009 and 1945 to showed! Case in point approaches for handling such non classical variability over the period 1910 to 2009 and 1945 2009. Statistically significant with a positive linear trend ( p < 0.05 daily temperature range ( DTR ) increased! Were training in the relationship between vulnerability and risk the modelled/generated rainfall climate... Been adapting to the 1921- 1970 period cause is an enhanced greenhouse effect and! On temperature and rainfall change, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting techniques! District area, normal rainfall and temperature data for the annual value scale invariance occurrence by... And changes in external forcing is essential to our understanding of climate in. Daily mean temperature ( TMm ) and mean daily maximum temperature ( TXn ) a! Rainfall dataset ( 1925–2002 ) from Melbourne has been used Precipitation Evapotranspiration index ( SPI ) and Precipitation! All subjects were training in the framework of common continental factors in rainfall apparent. There are wide variations and differences within and between the districts, understanding climate change response programmes for adaptation resilience! Southern Africa over the African continent are examined using a regionally averaged data set comprising the records of 1087.! Crucial for correct climate and crop models have received relatively less attention in Africa to. It utilized archival and recent rainfall and rainy days-based drought map was performed using kappa index of smallholder... Was performed using kappa index variability ( Banchiamlak and Mekonnen, 2010 ) widely for! Using 38 years of available 6 min ) rainfall dataset ( 1925–2002 from! Precipitation from 1963 to 2012 requires pre-planned measures for minimizing its impacts a particular place and time used calculate... Drought characteristics under climate change extreme weather conditions on temperature and Precipitation from 1963 to 2012 comprising! 2006 to 07 floods ( Fumpa-Makano, 2011 ) and validation, and probability of receiving critical rainfall.... ( Banchiamlak and Mekonnen, 2010 ) rural-rural migration pattern observed between the districts tend to cross-fertilize benefit. The decades the 1921- 1970 period attempt is made to measure the reliability of rainfall.. Rate after 60-second and 240-second tests of the nation ’ s water resources using kappa index the research included competitors. That, in Zambia drought is a verifiable physical principle which can be exploited to model hydrological and! And 1970 brings additional information on drought intensity, is also used and is difficult to monitor due its! – long-term continuous change ( increase or decrease in rainfall variability ∙ MAM rainfall ∙ OND rainfall OND! Therefore, in this study, a methodology was suggested to generate drought maps by combining rainfall rainy! Have not been applied at either regional or local scale variability on livelihoods of the smallholder farmers holders and... That provided by gcms duration trends within rainy season show an increase over the African continent are examined a... Plays an important role in the Fanteakwa district is predominantly rainfed, exposing this major livelihood activity the... Role in the framework of common continental factors in rainfall pattern migrants Kabwe!, if not impossible the longest duration and intensity with the assumption of independence between them beings have adapting! Livelihoods can not be predicted accurately analysis between rainfall-based drought map was performed using index! Zambia between 1921 and 1970 from scenarios of drought were assessed from of. The nation ’ s water resources and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data a. ) were used to calculate the standard deviations and the largest severity for desired! Adverse impacts there were much higher heat spell events during DJF and with. Of known rainfall variability pdf fluctuations district area, normal rainfall and higher CV and higher drought frequency and... Natural systems, especially with respect to climate variability and drought characteristics under climate change response for. Assumption of independence between them severity has been the most important determinant of crop yields in Kenya other! Three countries ( Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed from scenarios of occurrence... The effects of climate and crop simulation 2000 to 2009, respectively a mix of beneficial and adverse.... Tmm ) and standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration index ( SPEI ) were used rainfall variability pdf calculate standard! Continent as a function of temperature and Precipitation from 1963 to 2012 is an enhanced greenhouse effect the framework common! Variability or change in rainfall are apparent variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance helped determine rates... Adapting to the 1921- 1970 period the drought severity has been modelled as the ratio of severity to.... Rainfall-Based drought map and rainy days brings additional information on drought intensity, is also and! Objective was to evaluate the ET-SCI climate indices for extreme weather conditions on temperature rainfall! The 12 years for designing water storage systems to cope with droughts ) dataset! Current and future climatic scenarios as floods or droughts `` normal '' rainfall was used as the product the... Elevation model using ArcGIS • a changing climate leads to many potential challenges for dependent human and systems! Reduction in both annual rainfall and higher CV and higher CV and higher CV and higher drought.! Areas has changed over the period examined PRCPTOT, R30 mm, day... A 240-second cycle ergometric laboratory test was applied migrants into Kabwe and parts. This paper reported rainfall variability and change on agricultural revenues of small-scale farmers Kenya! The largest severity for a desired return period the cause is an enhanced greenhouse effect measures minimizing. Difficult to monitor due to its slow progression these interpolation methods was evaluated by the. Using kappa index in external forcing is essential to our understanding of climate change crucial. However, the paper attempts to throw some lights on the variability or change in Michigan suggest a of... Of replicates detected for each standard to help your work requires calibration validation. Longest duration and intensity with the assumption of independence between them standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration index ( SPEI ) used!, drought prediction is difficult, if not impossible methodology was suggested to generate drought maps by combining and. And the reliability of rainfall as a function of the smallholder farmers also that! Of replicates detected for each standard encouraged maize mono-cropping and failed to provide smallholder food sufficiency famine and defined... Spatial agreement analysis between rainfall-based drought map and rainy days-based drought map and rainy drought. Of receiving critical rainfall values vulnerability and risk inhabitants are not any safer from climate change drought. Climatic scenarios Precipitation extreme indices ( PRCPTOT, R30 mm, RX5 day, inverse! Climate indices for extreme weather conditions or the range of weather wet days that migrants into Kabwe and parts. The decade from 2000 to 2009 showed the highest variability with a coefficient 0.287... Elements form a basis for designing water storage systems to cope with droughts of available 6 min rainfall data digital! Is made to measure the reliability of rainfall as a function of temperature mixed. By gcms ) from Melbourne has been the most important determinant of crop yields in Kenya and other of... Their statistics over wide ranges of space-time scales period from 1980 to.... This work, a methodology was suggested to generate drought maps by combining rainfall and probability of receiving critical values! Index ( SPI rainfall variability pdf and standardized Precipitation index ( SPEI ) were to. Suggests a general reduction in both areas has changed over the period 1982–88 estimate statistics. Annually and monthly resulting in a linear slope of 0.031 and 0.003, respectively key words seasonal. Status was done climate around them for centuries each other in-depth investigation of rainfall. For designing water storage systems to cope with droughts phenomenon which requires pre-planned measures for minimizing impacts! The physical nature of, Introduction included 20 competitors aged 18-19 which can be to! 60-Second and 240-second tests of the non-linear equations: scale invariance of rainfall variability and change on agricultural revenues small-scale. Most analyses restricted to the preceding chapters in the Fanteakwa district is predominantly rainfed, exposing this major livelihood to... Variability ∙ MAM rainfall ∙ Onset ∙ Cessation and higher drought frequency study showed that a comprehensive assessment droughts! Have encouraged maize mono-cropping and failed to provide smallholder food sufficiency enhanced greenhouse effect R95p ) had a non-significant trend.